Lowell Highlands Weather

814
FXUS61 KBOX 230647
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
247 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Mainly dry and cooler weather outside of a brief spot shower or two
are on tap for today and Friday. Dry and even cooler temperatures
arrive this weekend as high pressure noses down from Quebec. Onshore
flow may result in some low clouds and a few showers by early next
week with the potential for a stronger coastal storm by mid-late in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Key Messages...

* Partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies today with nothing more
  than a brief spot shower or two...Highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s

Details...

Closed upper level low across Quebec will result in a deep trough
over the northeast. Cyclonic flow coupled with shortwave energy/cold
pool aloft will allow for a fair amount of strato-cu to develop
especially during the afternoon hours. So while there will be peeks
of sunshine...also expect periods of partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Dry weather will dominate given the lack of low level support...but
the cold pool aloft may trigger a few brief spot showers especially
during the afternoon hours. High temps will generally reach the
upper 50s to the lower 60s. Bufkit soundings also support enough
mixing to generate southwest wind gusts of 20-25 mph by afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

Key Messages...

* Variable clouds tonight...Lows in the upper 30s to the middle 40s

* Considerable clouds again on Fri with nothing more than a spot
  shower or two...Highs in the upper 50s to near 60

Details...

Tonight...

Vigorous shortwave energy will remain across our region given the
deep northeast trough. This should result in varying amounts of
clouds at times. Generally dry weather is expected tonight...but can
not rule out a brief spot shower. Low temps tonight will mainly be
in the upper 30s to the middle 40s.

Friday...

The deep upper trough and cold pool aloft remain in control of our
weather for Fri. This should result in another day of considerable
cloudiness...but with peeks of sunshine at times too. A spot shower
or two will be possible especially during the afternoon hours...but
again with the lack of low level support the majority of the day
will feature dry weather. High temps a tad lower than
today...generally in the upper 50s to near 60. Winds will be
considerably lighter though than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Key Messages...

* Dry & cool Sat/Sun...Lows upper 20s & 30s with highs mainly in the
  50s but parts of the high terrain may only reach the upper 40s

* Cool with the risk for some unsettled weather early next week and
  perhaps a stronger coastal storm by the mid-late next week

Details...

Saturday and Sunday...

Large high pressure builds eastward across Quebec and noses
southward into our region this weekend. This will bring us dry but
cool weather with slightly below normal temps for this time of year.
Low temps will mainly be in the upper 20s and 30s. High temps will
generally be in the 50s...but portions of the high terrain may only
reach the upper 40s. It does look like Sunday will be the slightly
cooler day.

Next Week...

Forecast confidence drops significantly next week...but it does
appear the risk for some unsettled weather is possible including the
potential for a stronger coastal storm by mid to late next week.

Initially...High pressure shifting further east across Quebec will
result in NE low level flow by Mon/Tue. This may allow some lower
clouds along with a few showers to impact the region with the best
chance along the coast. More importantly...we will be watching
vigorous northern stream energy that will be dropping southward
potentially leading to the formation of a coastal storm by mid-late
next week. There is quite the spread in the individual ensembles in
terms of not only the track but intensity as well. And that is no
surprise given this is still 6-7 days out...which is an eternity in
the model world. Some of the models indicate the potential for quite
a strong low pressure system coupled with a 1035 mb high across
eastern Canada. If this were to occur...a period of a windswept
soaking rain would be possible. The one positive thing is that
astronomical tides are rather low...so it would take a lot to get
much more than minor coastal flooding. But again...we need several
more days to sort this all out and have a better idea on potential
outcomes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Today...High confidence.

VFR despite a scattered to broken deck of strato-cu at times...but
nothing more than a brief spot shower or two. SW winds will gust to
between 20 and 25 knots at times later this morning and
afternoon...strongest of which will be near the south coast.

Tonight and Friday...High confidence.

VFR conditions continue despite some strato-cu at times especially
during the day Fri. Again though nothing more than a few brief spot
showers are expected. WSW winds of 5-10 knots tonight will tend to
shift to more of a W or even WNW direction on Friday at the same
speeds.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday through Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Friday...High confidence.

A modest southwest LLJ coupled with decent mixing today will
generate another round of SW wind gusts of 25 knots. The long SW
fetch will also generate 3 to 6 foot seas...highest of which will be
across our southern waters. Opted to hoist small craft headlines for
all our waters except for Boston Harbor today...but even there it
may briefly touch criteria.

The winds turn more to a westerly direction tonight and Friday and
also diminish behind the shortwave. Most of the small craft
headlines will drop off by tonight...except for our southern waters
where marginal seas will linger. By Friday...expect all winds/seas
to be below small craft advisory thresholds and no marine headlines
will be needed.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235-
     237-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...Frank