402
FXUS61 KBOX 022304
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
704 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues as high pressure slowly moves across
southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. A prolonged
period of dry weather with above- normal temperatures this
weekend through early next week, as high pressure is the
predominant weather feature. A pattern shift comes middle part
of next week with the next chance of rain and cooler, albeit
seasonable temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:
* Decreasing winds through the evening with overnight temps in
the mid 30s to low 40s.
Details:
Few lingering stratocumulus across the South Coast, Cape, and
Islands this afternoon, but otherwise sunny and clear under high
pressure. While still a little gusty across the outer Cape and
Islands, winds have significantly decreased compared to
yesterday, and will continue to decrease into the evening.
Relative Humidity will increase overnight, allowing for some
light cloud formation... keeping temperatures tonight from
plummeting along the coast; however, temperatures throughout the
interior are likely to reach as low as the mid 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Warming trend as we head into the weekend, with afternoon
highs in the mid 70s.
High pressure pushes into the Mid-Atlantic region, allowing for
increased southerly flow and warmer temperatures heading into
the weekend. The southern coast will be a little cooler with
highs in the upper 60s, but highs elsewhere should reach into
the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Continued stretch of dry weather through Tuesday, next chance
for rain middle of next week.
* Very mild and comfortable temperatures for early October
beginning this weekend will continue through Tuesday, with a
trend for seasonable temperatures by the middle part of next
week.
There were no significant changes to the extended forecast
period as guidance continues to support a long duration of dry
weather, as a mid-level ridge and surface high pressure remain
in control. Next chance of rain arrives the middle of next week,
around Wednesday, as the ridge moves off shore and a mid-level
trough approaches from the west.
Given the current set up, temperature wise, expecting above
normal stretch of afternoon highs and overnight lows. 850mb
temperatures are expected to remain several degrees Celsius
above normal, thus will result in a mild stretch. Afternoon
highs will climb into the upper-70s to low-80s, while Cape Cod,
the Islands, and coastal areas have afternoon highs in the
low-70s. For overnight lows, those range between the lower and
upper-50s. Reference point, highs for early October range
between from the mid-60s to 70F. Overnight lows, those range
between the upper-40s to low-50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR. Light winds.
Friday and Friday Night: High confidence.
VFR. Light winds becoming west-southwesterly 5 to 10 knots.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Southeast wind becoming light from the southwest overnight. By
tomorrow west-southwest winds around 10 knots. A low chance for
a sea breeze to develop around 18z Friday. Confidence with a sea
breeze remains too low at this point to include in the 00z TAF
for KBOS.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday through Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
SCAs remain for the outer waters through early Friday, and will
likely be able to drop them tonight. Wave heights 5-7 ft slowly
decrease through the night while winds have been sub-SCA
throughout today.
Winds and seas are sub-SCA for Friday, with SW winds around
10-15 kt (locally around 20 kt over northeast waters) and seas
3-4 ft.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dooley/McMinn
NEAR TERM...McMinn
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Dooley/McMinn
MARINE...Dooley/McMinn
NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion
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