968
FXUS61 KBOX 290454
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1254 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry, pleasant weather through the end of the week as
high pressure continues to influence our weather.
- High pressure likely to maintain dry weather through at least
Monday. A slight risk for some showers Tuesday into Wednesday,
but the details are not yet certain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, pleasant weather through the end of the week as
high pressure continues to influence our weather.
Southern New England will see temperatures about 10-12 degrees above
average today and Friday as a surge of warm air advection ahead of a
cold front warms 925 mb temperatures to between +11 and +15C. After
lows in the 30s and 40s this morning, highs today quickly rebound
into the low to mid 60s, upper 60s for the Merrimack and Connecticut
River Valleys. Highs climb a few degrees higher on Friday with many
places warming near or just above 70 across the southern and eastern
coastal plains (mid 60s for the interior and Cape/Islands). As the
cold front approaches Friday, winds are likely to be gustier than
we`ve seen the last several days...likely 20 to 25 mph at times,
possibly 30 to 35 mph in the higher elevations.
Post-FROPA Friday night, skies clear and winds calm for another
night of radiational cooling. Temperatures will once again drop into
the low to mid 30s for most.
KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure
likely to maintain dry weather through at least Monday. A slight
risk for some showers Tuesday into Wednesday, but the details
are not yet certain.
The dominant high pressure should finally move off the coast
Sunday night into Monday. Even then, its influence is expected
to slowly diminish into the middle of next week.
There are rather large discrepancies in the evolution of a mid
level ridge across the central USA early next week. The
magnitude and orientation of this ridge will be the determining
factor for the track of a low pressure trying to move east from
the Rockies. at this time, thinking this low pressure will
struggle to move east quickly. That leaves the positioning of
its associated fronts to consider. With the low pressure quite
a ways away from southern New England, there will not be much
push to move them much as well.
Overall, the most likely outcome is that dry weather prevails.
However, a quasi-warm front may get close enough to our region
Tuesday into Wednesday to perhaps trigger a few showers. Not
seeing much moisture to work with, so any precipitation would be
light.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
VFR. Light SW winds potentially gust up to 20 kts by mid-
morning. Greatest chance for interior terminals.
Tonight...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. Areas of MVFR, or local IFR across the higher
terrain, along a dry cold front as it crosses southern New
England.
KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night through Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Friday...High confidence.
Light winds and seas 1-3 ft continue as high pressure persists
across the coastal waters. High pressure slowly pulls away
Thursday with increasing SW winds to between 15 and 20 kts.
Marginal SCA conditions possible across the eastern near coastal
waters this afternoon then spreads to the southern waters
overnight. Greater chance for SCA conditions Friday afternoon
as winds increase to 20-25 kts.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Belk/FT
AVIATION...Belk/FT
MARINE...Belk/FT
NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion
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