565
FXUS61 KBOX 222311
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
711 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Partial sunshine continues this afternoon with pleasant high
temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. Mainly dry and cooler
weather outside of a brief spot shower or two are on tap for
Thursday and Friday. Dry and even cooler temperatures arrive this
weekend as high pressure builds in from the west. A frontal
system arrives sometime Monday morning, bringing rain and a
chance for thunderstorms. The pattern remains unsettled as we
head into the middle of next week. Potential for a coastal storm
later next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Quiet and dry, save for a spot shower Thursday.
The skies have cleared up nicely behind this morning`s weather, with
a mix of clouds and sun accompanied by some gusty winds thanks to
better mixing down of a modest low level jet in cold advection.
Thsese gusts will decrease after sunset but the persistance of the
previously mentioned LLJ will keep things breezy overnight. Thus,
while temperatures will be quite a bit colder tonight thanks to a
cooler airmass overhead, not expecting a big contribution from
radiational cooling. Expect lows in the upper 30s (high elevations)
to low 50s (Cape and islands); most will be in the low to mid 40s.
Thursday a trough continues to dig into the eastern U.S. with
surface pressure rising. This cold pool aloft along with lingering
low/mid level moisture will bring a good amount of diurnal clouds,
as well as a smattering of isolated showers. The best chance for
these will be inland and later in the afternoon/evening. As the high
approaches the pressure gradient slackens, so winds will be less
gusty than today, but still breezy out of the SW. High temperatures
are cooler in the post frontal airmass, topping out in the upper 50s
and low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
* Quiet and dry once again.
Winds calm Thursday night as high pressure approaches so we may see
some contribution from radiational cooling leading to lows in the
upper 30s to low 40s. Another dry night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Dry/cool Sat/Sun...Highs in the 50s & lows upper 20s & 30s
* NE flow Mon/Tue may bring some low clouds and a few showers
* Unsettled weather possible by midweek as a trough digs over the
eastern US
Details...
This Weekend...
A cool but pleasant fall weekend ahead as a trough begins pulling
away from the region. Below zero 850mb temps and cyclonic northwest
flow should keep highs in the lower to mid 50s. Low temperatures
will likely be in the 30s for much of the region outside of the Cape
and Islands where lows will stay in the middle and lower 40s. BUFKIT
soundings show a somewhat deep mixed layer overhead both afternoons
and so apparent temperatures will likely be closer to the 40s.
Next Week...
Forecast confidence is still somewhat low for the start of the
workweek. Model guidance indicates an upper level low approaching
from Quebec later Sunday into Monday. A cold front ahead of high
pressure brings a chance for showers and a much cooler airmass later
Sunday into Monday. 850mb temps behind the front fall between 15-20F
below climo. Looking at a cool and dreary day Monday with NE flow
bringing low clouds and perhaps a shower or two to coastal areas.
Ensembles show a deepening trough and anomalously low 500mb heights
over the eastern CONUS mid to late week with the potential for a
coastal storm.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Tonight and Thursday...High confidence.
Lingering stratocu overnight with continued cold air advection.
Expecting VFR through the night. VFR with nothing more than a
brief spot shower on Thu. Lingering stratocu and cu develop with
daytime heating. SW winds 5-15 knots with some 20-25 knot gusts
during the day on Thu.
Thursday night...High confidence.
VFR with light W winds.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Last of the showers
should depart by 14z/15z today.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR.
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence.
Closed upper level energy from the Great lakes into Quebec will
result in persistent SW flow this evening through Thu, becoming
lighter and W Thursday night. Long SW fetch will result in 3 to
6 foot seas across our southern waters. Low level jet is also
strong enough to generate SW wind gusts of 20-25 knots across
our waters at times...so SCA are in effect for all waters except
Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay today through Thursday.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ231>234-250-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-
254.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/FT
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...BW/FT
MARINE...BW/FT
NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion
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