NWS Technical Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBOX 160846
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
446 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring an extended period of dry weather
into next weekend. The high will initially be accompanied by
unseasonably cool weather Tuesday into Thursday morning. A
gradual warmup is expected, as temperatures possibly rebound
into the 80s this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Veil of high thin clouds is pushing across the region early this
morning. A band of lower clouds extends from NY and PA across
the Berkshires into central and southern areas as seen on latest
GOES-East satellite imagery and observations, with cloud heights
between 4Kft and 6Kft. This band is near or just S of the
approaching cold front, which will clear the S coast by 12Z or
so.

Light/variable or calm winds through the pre dawn hours, along
with low T/Td spreads, may produce some patchy fog, especially
across portions of the CT valley as well as portions of interior
SE Mass.

Expect low temps to be in the mid 50s to near 60 across most
areas, up to the lower-mid 60s along the S coast, Cape Cod and
the islands.

For today, a weak low pres wave will slide along the front,
which may bring a few spotty showers to portions of N central/NE
CT. Those showers should quickly shift S by around midday or
early this afternoon.

Expect the front to quickly shift S as the southern periphery
of large high pres builds slowly out of eastern Canada. The
band of clouds will also push S during the morning, with
increasing sunshine during the afternoon as winds shift to N.
Expect seasonable temps as readings reach the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

Tonight and Tuesday...

The large high will dominate through this timeframe, with dry
conditions in place. N winds will continue tonight into Tuesday
morning, then shift to NE by midday or early afternoon. Will see
wind gusts up to around 20 kt along the coast late tonight and
Tuesday.

With lighter winds inland tonight, temps will drop with the
mainly clear skies in place. Temps will bottom out in the 40s,
lowest in the normally colder valley locations, ranging to the
mid-upper 50s along the immediate E coast.

Readings will tend to rebound, but will remain cooler along the
coast with highs only in the mid to upper 60s and the higher
inland terrain, ranging to around 70 across the coastal plain
and the CT valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Updated 330 AM ...

Highlights...

* Very pleasant dry stretch of weather this period
* Fall-like temps mid week then summer warmth for the weekend

Precipitation...

Amplifying upper air pattern this period marked by an anomalous
northwest Atlantic trough and building MS Valley/Great Lakes
ridge. This places New England in dry anticyclonic/NW mid level
flow. Thus not expecting any precipitation during this period
(Tue night thru Sunday)

Temperatures...

Given the high amplitude upper air pattern large temperature
fluctuations expected this period. Keep in mind normal temps
this time of year are are highs 70-75 and average lows 53-58.

Anomalous northwest Atlantic trough delivers subzero 850 mb
temps across the Maritimes Tue night with 850 temps down to +3C
over eastern MA Wed morning! Thus cooler than normal temps here
with lows in the 40s (30s & frost possible!)and highs only in
the 60s mid week despite plenty of sunshine. Given the dry
airmass, light winds and mainly clear skies derived min temps
from the colder MOS guidance. After another chilly start Thu
morning airmass slowly begins to modify with height rises in
response to mid level ridge building into New England from the
OH Valley. Highs will rebound into the low 70s Thu, near 80
Friday, low 80s Saturday and possibly mid 80s Sunday. Given
Euro ensembles have +17C air at 850 mb streaming across
southern New England Sunday, leaned toward the warmest guidance
(WPC) here.

Hurricane Humberto...

No senSible weather impacts for southern New England as
Humberto tracks out to sea passing very close to Bermuda
Thursday morning. By Fri anomalous northwest Atlantic trough is
expected to capture Humberto and shift its track northward,
still passing well east of New England. However this northward
trajectory will likely bring large swells into the New England
waters. So a concern this weekend is as temperatures warm into
the 80s especially Sunday, beachgoers may have to contend with
large/rough surf and strong rip currents at ocean exposed
beaches of RI/MA. Unfortunately now that it`s mid to late Sep
most if not all beaches no longer have lifeguards on duty.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Through Today...VFR conditions. Expect mid and high clouds,
though may be a bit lower across western Mass into N central/NE
CT through 12Z or so. Low chance for showers across N central/NE
CT through mid to late morning. May see spotty MVFR CIGS.
Light/variable winds early becoming N-NW at 5-10 kt.

Tonight and Tuesday...VFR. Light N-NW winds early tonight shifts
to N 5 to 10 knots. Gusts up to 20 kt possible along E coastal
areas late tonight through around midday Tuesday.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...High confidence.

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday through Friday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Overnight and Monday...Weak pressure gradient will allow winds
and seas to remain well below small craft advisory thresholds.

Monday night...A cold front will cross the waters Monday
evening. Decent mixing in the cool air advection pattern should
yield a period of northerly lower 20 knot wind gusts and 2 to 4
foot seas. We can not rule out brief SCA conditions, but threat
is too marginal to hoist any headlines at this point.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...Moderate confidence.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/EVT

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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